Sunday, June 06, 2004
On Minorities
The next government will be a minority government - there seems to be general agreement on this point. The trouble is that the minority scenario that people have been forecasting from the beginning of the campaign - Liberal government with NDP support on confidence motions - is no longer feasible, if only because the New Democrats are unlikely to win enough seats to cover the gaping chasm between either of the two biggest parties and a majority. As much as sagging Liberal fortunes have hurt Paul Martin, they may have hurt Jack Layton even more, since even if his party performs relatively well (winning in the vicinity of twenty-five seats) the Liberals will likely fall so far short of a majority that he will be unable to play Ed Broadbent to Martin's Pierre Trudeau.
This means, essentially, that any finance minister wishing to pass a budget will require the support of any two of the three biggest parties - Liberal, Conservative, and Bloc Québecois. Budgets, perhaps more so than most legislation, can be reasonably measured on the left-right spectrum. On that spectrum, the Bloc is easily the most left-wing of the three largest parties, the Liberals the centrists, and the Conservatives, obviously, the most right-wing. A Conservative government would require either the support of the Liberals (which one has to consider to be unlikely - no minority in Canadian federal history has ever received the support of the official opposition), or the Bloc Québecois. On budgetary matters, the Conservatives and the Bloc are so distant ideologically that any partnership will require major compromise on the part of one or both parties.
Conceivably, the Bloc could be placed in a situation where they want to avoid another election, fearing that it would become a vote on which party should form government - a vote in which most Québecois would favour the Liberals over the Conservatives. In that event, however, it seems likely that the Bloc would first attempt partnership with the more ideologically malleable Liberals, who will be prepared to put such measures in the budget as may be necessary to retain power. Therefore, the only way the Conservatives will be able to form a government is if they capitulate on much of what they ran on, in order to receive Bloc support. At this point, Stephen Harper can probably ill-afford to be seen to abandon principle so soon after taking office. For this reason, a Conservative government remains substantially less likely than a Conservative plurality.
Fun fact: since Confederation, Canada has had nine minority governments. Each of the five Liberal attempts (King X 2, Pearson X 2, Trudeau) has lasted longer than any of the four Conservative attempts (Meighen, Diefenbaker X 2, Clark).
And now, my revised seat predictions
Liberal: 125
Conservative: 111
Bloc Québecois: 52
New Democrats: 24
Greens: 0
Independent: 0
Other: 0
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The next government will be a minority government - there seems to be general agreement on this point. The trouble is that the minority scenario that people have been forecasting from the beginning of the campaign - Liberal government with NDP support on confidence motions - is no longer feasible, if only because the New Democrats are unlikely to win enough seats to cover the gaping chasm between either of the two biggest parties and a majority. As much as sagging Liberal fortunes have hurt Paul Martin, they may have hurt Jack Layton even more, since even if his party performs relatively well (winning in the vicinity of twenty-five seats) the Liberals will likely fall so far short of a majority that he will be unable to play Ed Broadbent to Martin's Pierre Trudeau.
This means, essentially, that any finance minister wishing to pass a budget will require the support of any two of the three biggest parties - Liberal, Conservative, and Bloc Québecois. Budgets, perhaps more so than most legislation, can be reasonably measured on the left-right spectrum. On that spectrum, the Bloc is easily the most left-wing of the three largest parties, the Liberals the centrists, and the Conservatives, obviously, the most right-wing. A Conservative government would require either the support of the Liberals (which one has to consider to be unlikely - no minority in Canadian federal history has ever received the support of the official opposition), or the Bloc Québecois. On budgetary matters, the Conservatives and the Bloc are so distant ideologically that any partnership will require major compromise on the part of one or both parties.
Conceivably, the Bloc could be placed in a situation where they want to avoid another election, fearing that it would become a vote on which party should form government - a vote in which most Québecois would favour the Liberals over the Conservatives. In that event, however, it seems likely that the Bloc would first attempt partnership with the more ideologically malleable Liberals, who will be prepared to put such measures in the budget as may be necessary to retain power. Therefore, the only way the Conservatives will be able to form a government is if they capitulate on much of what they ran on, in order to receive Bloc support. At this point, Stephen Harper can probably ill-afford to be seen to abandon principle so soon after taking office. For this reason, a Conservative government remains substantially less likely than a Conservative plurality.
Fun fact: since Confederation, Canada has had nine minority governments. Each of the five Liberal attempts (King X 2, Pearson X 2, Trudeau) has lasted longer than any of the four Conservative attempts (Meighen, Diefenbaker X 2, Clark).
And now, my revised seat predictions
Liberal: 125
Conservative: 111
Bloc Québecois: 52
New Democrats: 24
Greens: 0
Independent: 0
Other: 0
