Saturday, June 26, 2004
Vector Marketing, meet the New Democratic Party
With the election only days away, now may be a good time to predict the aftermath, especially the effects on the careers of the relevant leaders.
In two cases, the predictions are extraordinarily easy. Stephen Harper's safety as Conservative leader is assured. Many pundits, this one included, predicted that the new Conservative Party would achieve little more success than its Alliance predecessor, since the leader is the party's public face and since the new party had the same public face as the old one. Instead, he is now expected by most pundits (though not this one) to win a plurality of seats. This improved performance is mostly due to Paul Martin, but Harper deserves some credit of his own, and will get it from a grateful party. Gilles Duceppe, likewise, will remain free to choose his own retirement date, as he will lead the Bloc to its best ever electoral performance, and may even become a significant player on the national stage in the unlikely event that the next government survives its first confidence vote.
Conventional wisdom dictates that Paul Martin will be in trouble in his own party. Remember, this is the man who was originally supposed to increase the size of the Liberal majority, and who is now going to lose it. He has run the worst campaign of any sitting Prime Minister in Canadian history with the exceptions of Kim Campbell in 1993 and Louis St-Laurent 1957 and the possible exception of John Turner in 1984. However, Martin's situation is most similar to Turner's: he was the heir-apparent for years, supposed to revitalize a tired party, and blew his political capital extremely quickly (for added parallels, track down the recent picture of Martin patting his wife's bottom). And Turner, despite being a clear waste of DNA, was allowed to stay on to fight another election (in which he partially redeemed himself). I suspect that Martin will get the same opportunity, because:
(a) there will be another election very soon, and the Liberals won't have time to find a new leader;
(b) there isn't an hear apparent - this is an advantage that even Turner lacked;
(c) too many people in the Liberal Party will look too stupid if they force Martin from office mere months after hailing him as the Party's saviour. While a Liberal, by its nature, exists only for the pursuit of power, this pursuit is not aided by being made to look stupid. All Liberal eggs are presently in one basket, and it will take a while to transfer them out.
If Martin is unable to form a stable government after the 2005 election (or, as Spencer speculates, the second 2004 election), the knives will be out.
The most interesting question is what will happen to Jack Layton. Layton, while an asset to his party leading up to the election, has unquestionably been a liability of Martin-esque proportions since the writ was dropped. Canadians who are not ideologically tied to the NDP have been put off by his manner and performance. I have heard several people comment that they were closest in ideology to the NDP, but are voting Green because of Layton. While he will unquestionably register significant gains for the party, these gains will be smaller than they were supposed to be, and will all but evaporate after the next election (which will be a straight Liberals vs. Conservatives affair, as elections after minorities collapse usually are). It's quite conceivable that the Party will decide to replace him before the 2008/2009 election - in its own way, his star is falling as dramatically as Martin's.
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With the election only days away, now may be a good time to predict the aftermath, especially the effects on the careers of the relevant leaders.
In two cases, the predictions are extraordinarily easy. Stephen Harper's safety as Conservative leader is assured. Many pundits, this one included, predicted that the new Conservative Party would achieve little more success than its Alliance predecessor, since the leader is the party's public face and since the new party had the same public face as the old one. Instead, he is now expected by most pundits (though not this one) to win a plurality of seats. This improved performance is mostly due to Paul Martin, but Harper deserves some credit of his own, and will get it from a grateful party. Gilles Duceppe, likewise, will remain free to choose his own retirement date, as he will lead the Bloc to its best ever electoral performance, and may even become a significant player on the national stage in the unlikely event that the next government survives its first confidence vote.
Conventional wisdom dictates that Paul Martin will be in trouble in his own party. Remember, this is the man who was originally supposed to increase the size of the Liberal majority, and who is now going to lose it. He has run the worst campaign of any sitting Prime Minister in Canadian history with the exceptions of Kim Campbell in 1993 and Louis St-Laurent 1957 and the possible exception of John Turner in 1984. However, Martin's situation is most similar to Turner's: he was the heir-apparent for years, supposed to revitalize a tired party, and blew his political capital extremely quickly (for added parallels, track down the recent picture of Martin patting his wife's bottom). And Turner, despite being a clear waste of DNA, was allowed to stay on to fight another election (in which he partially redeemed himself). I suspect that Martin will get the same opportunity, because:
(a) there will be another election very soon, and the Liberals won't have time to find a new leader;
(b) there isn't an hear apparent - this is an advantage that even Turner lacked;
(c) too many people in the Liberal Party will look too stupid if they force Martin from office mere months after hailing him as the Party's saviour. While a Liberal, by its nature, exists only for the pursuit of power, this pursuit is not aided by being made to look stupid. All Liberal eggs are presently in one basket, and it will take a while to transfer them out.
If Martin is unable to form a stable government after the 2005 election (or, as Spencer speculates, the second 2004 election), the knives will be out.
The most interesting question is what will happen to Jack Layton. Layton, while an asset to his party leading up to the election, has unquestionably been a liability of Martin-esque proportions since the writ was dropped. Canadians who are not ideologically tied to the NDP have been put off by his manner and performance. I have heard several people comment that they were closest in ideology to the NDP, but are voting Green because of Layton. While he will unquestionably register significant gains for the party, these gains will be smaller than they were supposed to be, and will all but evaporate after the next election (which will be a straight Liberals vs. Conservatives affair, as elections after minorities collapse usually are). It's quite conceivable that the Party will decide to replace him before the 2008/2009 election - in its own way, his star is falling as dramatically as Martin's.
