Tuesday, January 24, 2006
The Results
Assuming the current results stand, here are the standings in the WitPotS 2006 Federal Election Pool
1. Dane Bullerwell, 18 points
2. Alex Abboud, 20 points
2. Chris Henderson, 20 points
4. Anand Sharma, 22 points
4. Steve Smith, 22 points
6. Sean Tisdall, 26 points
7. Guillaume Laroche, 30 points
8. Sharon Ohayon, 34 points
9. Dave Cournoyer, 48 points
9. Adam Demaniuk, 48 points
9. Don Iveson, 48 points
9. J. Ross Prusakowski, 48 points
13. Colin Robertson, 50 points
14. Mike Walesiak, 56 points
15. Neil Carey, 58 points
16. M. Mustafa Hirji, 64 points
17. Rachel Woynorowski, 82 points
If Clement loses his seat, everybody gains two points except for Sean Tisdall, who loses two points, and Alex Abboud and Dane Bullerwell, who hold steady. Placings are affected only insofar as Alex Abboud would move into sole possession of second place (with Chris Henderson moving into sole possession of third) and Sean Tisdall would move into a three-way tie with Anand Sharma and Steve Smith for fourth.
I would now like to take this opportunity to make a player by player examination of secondary predictions:
Alex Abboud
"Belinda Stronach will lose her seat, and it won't even be that close. I see a 5-10% margin for the CPC."
Unfortunately for all that is right and just, Belinda retained her seat, winning 42.6% compared to Conservative Lois Brown's 38.0%.
"Paul Martin's concession speech will be eerily reminiscent of Howard Dean's post-Iowa speech. The only difference is that Martin's speech will be drowned out by the sound of hundreds of Liberals in the room typing up their resumes."
Well, I didn't really think so, but the Plant was pretty noisy.
"Anne McLellan will go down to defeat (by about 1500 votes). . ."
3590, actually. But basically accurate.
". . . but Nicole Martel will emerge victorious tomorrow night in Edmonton-East, pending a recount."
Well, the margin's currently at 11,994 in Peter Goldring's favour, but maybe the recount Alex promised us will change that.
"In Quebec, the CPC will win 3 seats - Maxime Bernier, Josee Verner, and the dude whose Liberal opponent endorsed him (I don't remember his name)."
Well, he was off in his prediction by seven, but he was correct on all three of the ones that he did call.
"Lawrence Cannon will come in second to the Bloc candidate."
In fact, Cannon beat the Blocquiste by 2277 votes.
"Paul Martin will be trailing in the early returns, but will eventually win his riding by about 2500 votes."
He was winning from the outself, and went on to win by a margin of 9244 votes.
"The leaders of the other three parties with representation in Parliament will each achieve of a majority of votes cast in their riding."
Harper got 72.0% and Duceppe got 54.6%, but Layton only managed 48.5%.
"Svend Robinson will win two distinctions on Monday night: Member of Parliament for Vancouver-Centre, and Member of Parliament who most resembles former Ag/For Councilor Paul Reikie."
Wrong on both counts - Robinson lost to Liberal Hedy Fry by 8641 votes.
"Anand's predictions will call for about 50 NDP seats."
Ha! Sadly, no. But I had to talk him down from close to forty.
Neil Carey
"The Conservative minority will lead to either a complete abandonment of principle (by the Conservatives) in order to prevent an election, or be even shorter lived than the latest Liberal minority."
Define "lead to". . .
Adam Demaniuk
"B.C.: CON 22; NDP 8; LIB 6 (Greater Vancouver: LIB 5; NDP 3; CON 2)"
In fact: CON 17; NDP 10; LIB 9, for a score of 10.
"Alberta: CON 28"
Spot on.
"Saskatchewan: CON 12; LIB 1; NDP 1"
In fact: CON 12; LIB 2, for a score of 2.
"Manitoba: CON 7; NDP 4; LIB 3"
In fact: CON 8; NDP 3; LIB 3, for a score of 2.
"Ontario: CON 57; LIB 39; NDP 10 (Greater Toronto: LIB 31; CON 7; NDP 2)"
In fact: CON 54, LIB 40, NDP 12, for a score of 6. Quite good, really.
"Quebec: BQ 59; LIB 11; CON 5 (Greater Montreal: BQ: 14; LIB 8)"
In fact: BQ 51; LIB 14; CON 10, for a score of 16.
"Newfoundland and Labrador: LIB 4; CON 3"
Spot on again.
"P.E.I.: LIB 4"
And again.
"Nova Scotia: CON 3; LIB 5; NDP 3"
In fact: CON 3; LIB 6; NDP 2, for a score of 2.
"New Brunswick: LIB 6; CON 3; NDP 1"
Another pefect province.
"Nunavut Territory: LIB 1
Yukon Territory: LIB 1
Northwest Territories: NDP 1"
And three perfect territories.
Guillaume Laroche
"Independents: 1 (André Arthur of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier)"
Correct.
Sharon Ohayon
"Other: 1 (Andre Arthur) yeah, I know it's not happening, but just for fun."
Right on the first point, wrong on the second, directly contradictory, point.
Steve Smith
"The Liberals will keep both [the Yukon and Nunavit]. I am optimistically predicting that they'll get the Western Arctic, but even that will be close."
I was right about the seat distribution, but the NDP won the Western Arctic by 1158 votes, which is rather too much to qualify as "close" in a riding with only 16166 votes cast.
"[In the maritings] the New Democrats will keep the seats that they have."
Exactly correct.
"The Liberals will lose a few to the Conservatives (Michael Savage's, to name one), but nobody of any note will be defeated here."
Well, the general sentiment was correct, as was the prediction that nobody of any note would be defeated, but Michael Savage kept his seat.
"Final maritime tally: 16 Liberals, 13 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats"
Actually, it was 20, 9, and 3 respectively, for a score of 8.
"[Québec] isn't going to be as dramatic as people think."
Yeah, I'd sort of like that one back.
"[In Québec,] the Bloc will take 58 seats, the Liberals will hang onto 15, and the Conservatives will pick up one, with the balance going to Andre Arthur."
Actual tally: 51, 13, 10, and 1, for a score of 18.
"[In Québec] nobody of any particular note will be defeated, except Marc Garneau, who's noteworthy for reasons totally unrelated to winning elections. Oh, and Pierre Pettigrew: go back to France!"
Marc Garneau and Pierre Pettigrew were defeated, as were Liberal cabinet ministers Jacques Saada and Liza Frulla. In fairness, I'm pretty sure I didn't consider either Saada or Frulla to be particularly prominent when I made that prediction.
"The Progressive Canadians will finish second in Liberal Denis Paradis' riding, which will be won by the Bloc."
Oops. The Bloc did win it with 38.3% of the vote, but Paradis was comfortably in second with 28.0%. Grafftey finished fifth, with 4.0%.
"[The New Democrats]'ll pick up two seats in metro Toronto (Olivia Chow's and what's-her-face's) and a handful around the rest of the province as well."
Correct on all counts ("what's-her-face" is my affectionate nickname for Peggy Nash).
"Belinda Stronach will go down to defeat at the hands of the Conservatives."
Nope.
"[Belinda]'ll be the most noteworthy defeat [in Ontario]."
Hmm. That title probably goes to Tony Valeri.
"[In Ontario:] 55 for the Liberals, 41 for the Conservatives, and 10 for the NDs"
Actual: 54, 40, 12, for a score of four. I'd say that that's damned good.
"Niki Ashton will win. . ."
. . . sadly, no.
". . . and Ed Schreyer (who's old enough to be Ashton's great grandfather) will lose."
Sadly, yes.
"[In Manitoba:] 7 Conservatives, 3 Liberals, 4 New Democrats."
Actuals: 8, 3, and 3 for a score of two.
"[In Saskatchewan:] Exactly the same results as last time. Goodale will no more lose than will Nystron win. Thus, 13 Conservatives and Goodale."
Well, I totally failed to anticipate Liberal Gary Merasty's win, but so did everybody else. And I called Nystrom's defeat (take that, electionprediction.org. But I still wound up with a score of two for the province.
"The Conservatives will finally get their sweep [of Alberta]."
Yep.
"New Democrat gains in Ontario will be partially offset by losses [in B.C.], as incumbents Bill Siksay, Peter Julian, and Nathan Cullen are all defeated."
Yes, well, see, all of those chaps were actually re-elected. Also, the NDs picked up seats in B.C. rather than losing them. Mea culpa.
"Oh, Svend will lose too."
He will indeed.
"On the other hand, the NDs will pick up Chuck Cadman's old riding (partly on the strength of a bizarre endorsement from Cadman's widow), and the Southern Interior (where the Conservatives dropped the Mercedes smuggler)."
Right on both counts.
"The only five [B.C.] Liberals to retain their seats will be Hedy Fry, Stephen Owen, Ujjal Dosanjh, Keith Martin, and David Mulroney (in David Anderson's old riding)."
. . . and Keith Martin and Sukh Dhaliwal and Don Bell and Raymond Chan and David Emerson and Blair Wilson. Oh, and Mulroney lost. Go me.
"The Greens won't do better than third anywhere."
This came very close to being correct, but Sean Maw finished second in the environmentalist hotbed of Wild Rose. Sure, he only got 10.8% of the vote compared to Conservative Myron Thompson's 72.2%, but a second place finish is a second place finish.
"Without Kilgour, the Liberals won't even come close to retaining [Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont] - they'll come closer to capturing Edmonton-Strathcona."
The Liberals came within 12571 votes of capturing Edmonton-Strathcona (even though they placed third) and within 17382 votes of capturing Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont. Depending on how you define "close", this prediction was a pretty good one.
"With the benefit of hindsight, a lot of Conservatives will be bemoaning Stephen Harper's talk of re-opening the Constitution (diluted thought it was) on January 24."
Well, okay, I haven't actually heard anything today. But I still think that this will emerge as one of the more regrettable (to Conservatives) promises to have been made during the campaign.
Sean Tisdall
"The PC's will have the highest finish in any individual riding of any party not currently represented in parliament."
Or maybe the Greens will, with the aforementioned second place finish. And maybe the P.C.s won't place higher than fifth anywhere.
"Olivia Chow will lose Trinity Spadina."
Or maybe she'll win handily; that's also a possibility.
"The Conservatives will win 8 in Quebec, the PCs 1, and the Liberals 15."
The actual numbers, as reiterated over and over, were 10, 0, and 13. Sean does get props for being the closest at predicting the Conservatives' ten Québec seats, though.
"Harper will lose the popular vote in every region but the west. . ."
Correct.
". . .and will not get a majority of the popular vote in any region but Alberta. . ."
Correct.
". . .and even then Edmonton will not give him 50%+1"
Well, we can't really verify this, since of the eight ridings that include part of Edmonton, five also include some surrounding areas (and the three that *are* all in Edmonton did see relatively narrow Conservative victories, with Peter Goldring's 50.1% in Edmonton-East standing up as the only majority), but it seems unlikely given how handily the Conservative wins were in each of these five.
"The Global Decision desk will be the first to call victory if the Conservatives win annd last to call a victory if the Liberals win."
I actually have no idea. Can anybody help me out with this?
"There will be at least one Conservative campaign that will blame the PCs for confusing voters."
As of press time, I've heard nothing.
"Paul Martin will fight another election as Liberal leader."
Well, he says he won't, but his credibility isn't especially high these days, so who knows? Besides that, I believe that Trudeau once said that he wouldn't lead the Liberals into the 1980 campaign.
Mike Walesiak
"Percentage of votes in the Strathcona riding
Rahim Jaffer: 42%
Andy Hladyshevsky: 20%
Linda Duncan: 27%
Other: 11%"
The actuals:
Rahim Jaffer: 41.6%
Andy Hladyshevsky: 17.8%
Linda Duncan: 32.5%
Other: 8.1%
"Alberta will be 100% Conservative."
Yep.
"Population's reaction:
Celebrating the new Conservative government by riding in the back of a 4x4 truck while doing donuts at a wedding reception for a gay couple: 37%
Whining that the press focused too much on adscam: 28%
Whining that the press did not focus on the "third option" for voters: 16%
Whining that their elected representatives do not have enough influence in a House of Commons which they are trying to pull out of: 12%
Whining that the Canadian electoral system does not adequately reflect each vote: 7%"
I took this to mean that Mike was predicting the share of the popular vote. In fact, it broke down as follows:
Conservative: 36%
Liberal: 30%
New Democrat: 17%
Bloc: 10%
Green: 5%
Stay tuned for my cabinet-picking pool. . .
|
Assuming the current results stand, here are the standings in the WitPotS 2006 Federal Election Pool
1. Dane Bullerwell, 18 points
2. Alex Abboud, 20 points
2. Chris Henderson, 20 points
4. Anand Sharma, 22 points
4. Steve Smith, 22 points
6. Sean Tisdall, 26 points
7. Guillaume Laroche, 30 points
8. Sharon Ohayon, 34 points
9. Dave Cournoyer, 48 points
9. Adam Demaniuk, 48 points
9. Don Iveson, 48 points
9. J. Ross Prusakowski, 48 points
13. Colin Robertson, 50 points
14. Mike Walesiak, 56 points
15. Neil Carey, 58 points
16. M. Mustafa Hirji, 64 points
17. Rachel Woynorowski, 82 points
If Clement loses his seat, everybody gains two points except for Sean Tisdall, who loses two points, and Alex Abboud and Dane Bullerwell, who hold steady. Placings are affected only insofar as Alex Abboud would move into sole possession of second place (with Chris Henderson moving into sole possession of third) and Sean Tisdall would move into a three-way tie with Anand Sharma and Steve Smith for fourth.
I would now like to take this opportunity to make a player by player examination of secondary predictions:
Alex Abboud
"Belinda Stronach will lose her seat, and it won't even be that close. I see a 5-10% margin for the CPC."
Unfortunately for all that is right and just, Belinda retained her seat, winning 42.6% compared to Conservative Lois Brown's 38.0%.
"Paul Martin's concession speech will be eerily reminiscent of Howard Dean's post-Iowa speech. The only difference is that Martin's speech will be drowned out by the sound of hundreds of Liberals in the room typing up their resumes."
Well, I didn't really think so, but the Plant was pretty noisy.
"Anne McLellan will go down to defeat (by about 1500 votes). . ."
3590, actually. But basically accurate.
". . . but Nicole Martel will emerge victorious tomorrow night in Edmonton-East, pending a recount."
Well, the margin's currently at 11,994 in Peter Goldring's favour, but maybe the recount Alex promised us will change that.
"In Quebec, the CPC will win 3 seats - Maxime Bernier, Josee Verner, and the dude whose Liberal opponent endorsed him (I don't remember his name)."
Well, he was off in his prediction by seven, but he was correct on all three of the ones that he did call.
"Lawrence Cannon will come in second to the Bloc candidate."
In fact, Cannon beat the Blocquiste by 2277 votes.
"Paul Martin will be trailing in the early returns, but will eventually win his riding by about 2500 votes."
He was winning from the outself, and went on to win by a margin of 9244 votes.
"The leaders of the other three parties with representation in Parliament will each achieve of a majority of votes cast in their riding."
Harper got 72.0% and Duceppe got 54.6%, but Layton only managed 48.5%.
"Svend Robinson will win two distinctions on Monday night: Member of Parliament for Vancouver-Centre, and Member of Parliament who most resembles former Ag/For Councilor Paul Reikie."
Wrong on both counts - Robinson lost to Liberal Hedy Fry by 8641 votes.
"Anand's predictions will call for about 50 NDP seats."
Ha! Sadly, no. But I had to talk him down from close to forty.
Neil Carey
"The Conservative minority will lead to either a complete abandonment of principle (by the Conservatives) in order to prevent an election, or be even shorter lived than the latest Liberal minority."
Define "lead to". . .
Adam Demaniuk
"B.C.: CON 22; NDP 8; LIB 6 (Greater Vancouver: LIB 5; NDP 3; CON 2)"
In fact: CON 17; NDP 10; LIB 9, for a score of 10.
"Alberta: CON 28"
Spot on.
"Saskatchewan: CON 12; LIB 1; NDP 1"
In fact: CON 12; LIB 2, for a score of 2.
"Manitoba: CON 7; NDP 4; LIB 3"
In fact: CON 8; NDP 3; LIB 3, for a score of 2.
"Ontario: CON 57; LIB 39; NDP 10 (Greater Toronto: LIB 31; CON 7; NDP 2)"
In fact: CON 54, LIB 40, NDP 12, for a score of 6. Quite good, really.
"Quebec: BQ 59; LIB 11; CON 5 (Greater Montreal: BQ: 14; LIB 8)"
In fact: BQ 51; LIB 14; CON 10, for a score of 16.
"Newfoundland and Labrador: LIB 4; CON 3"
Spot on again.
"P.E.I.: LIB 4"
And again.
"Nova Scotia: CON 3; LIB 5; NDP 3"
In fact: CON 3; LIB 6; NDP 2, for a score of 2.
"New Brunswick: LIB 6; CON 3; NDP 1"
Another pefect province.
"Nunavut Territory: LIB 1
Yukon Territory: LIB 1
Northwest Territories: NDP 1"
And three perfect territories.
Guillaume Laroche
"Independents: 1 (André Arthur of Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier)"
Correct.
Sharon Ohayon
"Other: 1 (Andre Arthur) yeah, I know it's not happening, but just for fun."
Right on the first point, wrong on the second, directly contradictory, point.
Steve Smith
"The Liberals will keep both [the Yukon and Nunavit]. I am optimistically predicting that they'll get the Western Arctic, but even that will be close."
I was right about the seat distribution, but the NDP won the Western Arctic by 1158 votes, which is rather too much to qualify as "close" in a riding with only 16166 votes cast.
"[In the maritings] the New Democrats will keep the seats that they have."
Exactly correct.
"The Liberals will lose a few to the Conservatives (Michael Savage's, to name one), but nobody of any note will be defeated here."
Well, the general sentiment was correct, as was the prediction that nobody of any note would be defeated, but Michael Savage kept his seat.
"Final maritime tally: 16 Liberals, 13 Conservatives, 3 New Democrats"
Actually, it was 20, 9, and 3 respectively, for a score of 8.
"[Québec] isn't going to be as dramatic as people think."
Yeah, I'd sort of like that one back.
"[In Québec,] the Bloc will take 58 seats, the Liberals will hang onto 15, and the Conservatives will pick up one, with the balance going to Andre Arthur."
Actual tally: 51, 13, 10, and 1, for a score of 18.
"[In Québec] nobody of any particular note will be defeated, except Marc Garneau, who's noteworthy for reasons totally unrelated to winning elections. Oh, and Pierre Pettigrew: go back to France!"
Marc Garneau and Pierre Pettigrew were defeated, as were Liberal cabinet ministers Jacques Saada and Liza Frulla. In fairness, I'm pretty sure I didn't consider either Saada or Frulla to be particularly prominent when I made that prediction.
"The Progressive Canadians will finish second in Liberal Denis Paradis' riding, which will be won by the Bloc."
Oops. The Bloc did win it with 38.3% of the vote, but Paradis was comfortably in second with 28.0%. Grafftey finished fifth, with 4.0%.
"[The New Democrats]'ll pick up two seats in metro Toronto (Olivia Chow's and what's-her-face's) and a handful around the rest of the province as well."
Correct on all counts ("what's-her-face" is my affectionate nickname for Peggy Nash).
"Belinda Stronach will go down to defeat at the hands of the Conservatives."
Nope.
"[Belinda]'ll be the most noteworthy defeat [in Ontario]."
Hmm. That title probably goes to Tony Valeri.
"[In Ontario:] 55 for the Liberals, 41 for the Conservatives, and 10 for the NDs"
Actual: 54, 40, 12, for a score of four. I'd say that that's damned good.
"Niki Ashton will win. . ."
. . . sadly, no.
". . . and Ed Schreyer (who's old enough to be Ashton's great grandfather) will lose."
Sadly, yes.
"[In Manitoba:] 7 Conservatives, 3 Liberals, 4 New Democrats."
Actuals: 8, 3, and 3 for a score of two.
"[In Saskatchewan:] Exactly the same results as last time. Goodale will no more lose than will Nystron win. Thus, 13 Conservatives and Goodale."
Well, I totally failed to anticipate Liberal Gary Merasty's win, but so did everybody else. And I called Nystrom's defeat (take that, electionprediction.org. But I still wound up with a score of two for the province.
"The Conservatives will finally get their sweep [of Alberta]."
Yep.
"New Democrat gains in Ontario will be partially offset by losses [in B.C.], as incumbents Bill Siksay, Peter Julian, and Nathan Cullen are all defeated."
Yes, well, see, all of those chaps were actually re-elected. Also, the NDs picked up seats in B.C. rather than losing them. Mea culpa.
"Oh, Svend will lose too."
He will indeed.
"On the other hand, the NDs will pick up Chuck Cadman's old riding (partly on the strength of a bizarre endorsement from Cadman's widow), and the Southern Interior (where the Conservatives dropped the Mercedes smuggler)."
Right on both counts.
"The only five [B.C.] Liberals to retain their seats will be Hedy Fry, Stephen Owen, Ujjal Dosanjh, Keith Martin, and David Mulroney (in David Anderson's old riding)."
. . . and Keith Martin and Sukh Dhaliwal and Don Bell and Raymond Chan and David Emerson and Blair Wilson. Oh, and Mulroney lost. Go me.
"The Greens won't do better than third anywhere."
This came very close to being correct, but Sean Maw finished second in the environmentalist hotbed of Wild Rose. Sure, he only got 10.8% of the vote compared to Conservative Myron Thompson's 72.2%, but a second place finish is a second place finish.
"Without Kilgour, the Liberals won't even come close to retaining [Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont] - they'll come closer to capturing Edmonton-Strathcona."
The Liberals came within 12571 votes of capturing Edmonton-Strathcona (even though they placed third) and within 17382 votes of capturing Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont. Depending on how you define "close", this prediction was a pretty good one.
"With the benefit of hindsight, a lot of Conservatives will be bemoaning Stephen Harper's talk of re-opening the Constitution (diluted thought it was) on January 24."
Well, okay, I haven't actually heard anything today. But I still think that this will emerge as one of the more regrettable (to Conservatives) promises to have been made during the campaign.
Sean Tisdall
"The PC's will have the highest finish in any individual riding of any party not currently represented in parliament."
Or maybe the Greens will, with the aforementioned second place finish. And maybe the P.C.s won't place higher than fifth anywhere.
"Olivia Chow will lose Trinity Spadina."
Or maybe she'll win handily; that's also a possibility.
"The Conservatives will win 8 in Quebec, the PCs 1, and the Liberals 15."
The actual numbers, as reiterated over and over, were 10, 0, and 13. Sean does get props for being the closest at predicting the Conservatives' ten Québec seats, though.
"Harper will lose the popular vote in every region but the west. . ."
Correct.
". . .and will not get a majority of the popular vote in any region but Alberta. . ."
Correct.
". . .and even then Edmonton will not give him 50%+1"
Well, we can't really verify this, since of the eight ridings that include part of Edmonton, five also include some surrounding areas (and the three that *are* all in Edmonton did see relatively narrow Conservative victories, with Peter Goldring's 50.1% in Edmonton-East standing up as the only majority), but it seems unlikely given how handily the Conservative wins were in each of these five.
"The Global Decision desk will be the first to call victory if the Conservatives win annd last to call a victory if the Liberals win."
I actually have no idea. Can anybody help me out with this?
"There will be at least one Conservative campaign that will blame the PCs for confusing voters."
As of press time, I've heard nothing.
"Paul Martin will fight another election as Liberal leader."
Well, he says he won't, but his credibility isn't especially high these days, so who knows? Besides that, I believe that Trudeau once said that he wouldn't lead the Liberals into the 1980 campaign.
Mike Walesiak
"Percentage of votes in the Strathcona riding
Rahim Jaffer: 42%
Andy Hladyshevsky: 20%
Linda Duncan: 27%
Other: 11%"
The actuals:
Rahim Jaffer: 41.6%
Andy Hladyshevsky: 17.8%
Linda Duncan: 32.5%
Other: 8.1%
"Alberta will be 100% Conservative."
Yep.
"Population's reaction:
Celebrating the new Conservative government by riding in the back of a 4x4 truck while doing donuts at a wedding reception for a gay couple: 37%
Whining that the press focused too much on adscam: 28%
Whining that the press did not focus on the "third option" for voters: 16%
Whining that their elected representatives do not have enough influence in a House of Commons which they are trying to pull out of: 12%
Whining that the Canadian electoral system does not adequately reflect each vote: 7%"
I took this to mean that Mike was predicting the share of the popular vote. In fact, it broke down as follows:
Conservative: 36%
Liberal: 30%
New Democrat: 17%
Bloc: 10%
Green: 5%
Stay tuned for my cabinet-picking pool. . .
