Monday, October 23, 2006
By-Elections!
Her Majesty has called two of them - one in Repentigny, which will be easily won by the Bloc Québécois, and one in London North-Centre, which is where the real action is.
I was a little surprised to learn that Stephen Harper was taking a "huge risk" by calling by-elections in ridings that his party didn't win last election and had little or no chance of winning next election, but I guess that's why Paul Nesbitt-Larking is a political expert and I'm not.
The only real question in this riding is whether the Liberals will keep is (incumbent Joe Fontana resigned to go into London municipal politics) or whether Green Leader Elizabeth May will become the Party's first MP (Garth Turner won't be, because he has virtually no positions in common with the party's policy).
Last time around, Fontana captured 40.1% of the vote, with his closest opponent, Conservative John Mazzilli, receiving 29.9%. Green candidate Stuart Smith won 5.5 percent, finishing fourth (question: has there ever been an electoral position occupied so consistently by one party across the whole country as fourth place has been by the Green Party during these last two elections? I'm too lazy to check, but I'd be surprised if they finished fourth in fewer than half of the country's ridings last time around).
At first glance, it seems unlikely that May can win. On the other hand, this will be the first time since the Greens burst forward as a national party (i.e. since they started running candidates in every riding) that a Green leader will run in a riding not contested by another party's leader. Moreover, the Turner Affair has given the Greens and Elizabeth May a fair amount of publicity, and the Liberals are struggling to find a candidate. They haven't selected a leader yet (thought the publicity of their leadership race could benefit them). In short, it's hard to imagine a more favourable set of circumstances for a Green by-election victory.
My prediction? She'll still come up short, but I have trouble seeing her finish worse than second (a position which faithful readers will recall only one Green candidate occupied during the last election - Wild Rose's Sean Maw).
In any event, it should provide some interesting political theatre - I'm personally curious as to how much of an issue May's opponents will make out of the fact that she'd only be representing the region until the next election, at which time she's committed to running in Nova Scotia.
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Her Majesty has called two of them - one in Repentigny, which will be easily won by the Bloc Québécois, and one in London North-Centre, which is where the real action is.
I was a little surprised to learn that Stephen Harper was taking a "huge risk" by calling by-elections in ridings that his party didn't win last election and had little or no chance of winning next election, but I guess that's why Paul Nesbitt-Larking is a political expert and I'm not.
The only real question in this riding is whether the Liberals will keep is (incumbent Joe Fontana resigned to go into London municipal politics) or whether Green Leader Elizabeth May will become the Party's first MP (Garth Turner won't be, because he has virtually no positions in common with the party's policy).
Last time around, Fontana captured 40.1% of the vote, with his closest opponent, Conservative John Mazzilli, receiving 29.9%. Green candidate Stuart Smith won 5.5 percent, finishing fourth (question: has there ever been an electoral position occupied so consistently by one party across the whole country as fourth place has been by the Green Party during these last two elections? I'm too lazy to check, but I'd be surprised if they finished fourth in fewer than half of the country's ridings last time around).
At first glance, it seems unlikely that May can win. On the other hand, this will be the first time since the Greens burst forward as a national party (i.e. since they started running candidates in every riding) that a Green leader will run in a riding not contested by another party's leader. Moreover, the Turner Affair has given the Greens and Elizabeth May a fair amount of publicity, and the Liberals are struggling to find a candidate. They haven't selected a leader yet (thought the publicity of their leadership race could benefit them). In short, it's hard to imagine a more favourable set of circumstances for a Green by-election victory.
My prediction? She'll still come up short, but I have trouble seeing her finish worse than second (a position which faithful readers will recall only one Green candidate occupied during the last election - Wild Rose's Sean Maw).
In any event, it should provide some interesting political theatre - I'm personally curious as to how much of an issue May's opponents will make out of the fact that she'd only be representing the region until the next election, at which time she's committed to running in Nova Scotia.
