Saturday, December 02, 2006
Why'd you have to go and make things so complicated?
Hey Liberals: way to do something to make me not hate you. Jerks.
Other thoughts:
- Both Dion's supporters and Ignatieff's favoured comparisons between their candidates and Pierre Trudeau. All of them were a stretch, but here's one basis on which Dion is Trudeau-esque: hey marks the first Liberal leader since Pierre Trudeau not to spend basically his entire adult life plotting to become Prime Minister. Stephen Harper, not coincidentally (hopefully) is the first Prime Minister since Trudeau not to spend his entire adult life in pursuit of that goal. (UPDATE: Kim Campbell doesn't count). It's a bad era for professional politicians.
- This also marks the first time since I don't know when (seriously, I'm not aware of the dynamics leading to Wildred Laurier winning the Liberal leadership) that the federal Liberal Party staged an upset. Certainly all of Paul Martin, Jean Chrétien, John Turner, Pierre Trudeau, Lester Pearson, Louis St.-Laurent, and William Lyon MacKenzie King went in as favourites.
- I backed Dion largely because I thought he was most committed to environmental protection. I liked what Ignatieff had to say on the subject as well, but I sensed that Dion, with his fabled intellectual integrity and his obvious emotional attachment to the file, was the one who'd follow through. I'll be watching.
- On October 2, I predicted the first ballot results. Compare my predictions to the actual results:
Prediction
Michael Ignatieff - 30.7%
Bob Rae - 20.4%
Gerard Kennedy - 17.7%
Stéphane Dion - 17.3%
Ken Dryden - 4.8%
Joe Volpe - 4.7%
Scott Brison - 4.0%
Martha Hall Findlay - 1.0%
Actual
29.3% Michael Ignatieff
20.3% Bob Rae
17.8% Stéphane Dion
17.7% Gerard Kennedy
4.9% Ken Dryden
4.0% Scott Brison
3.2% Joe Volpe
2.7% Martha Hall Findlay
You'll note that I predicted four of the results within 0.1%. My most serious errors were in failing to anticipate the massive no-show of Volpe's delegates and the way that undeclared ex-officios migrated to Hall Findlay. I also overestimated Ignatieff by a little, but given that this was a time when Liberal insiders were saying that 35% for him was a slam-dunk, I'm pretty pleased with myself. But then, I'm always pretty pleased with myself.
- The combined intellects of the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition are now as high as they've been since Confederation.
- Going into the last ballot, Ignatieff supporters were trumpeting his comparative electability. Nonsense. Michael Ignatieff could not have won a federal election as a party leader. That's not to say that Dion could - I'm inclined to agree with the pollsters who thought that Rae was the most electable - but it's certainly no strike against him when compared to Iggy.
- The most depressing element of the campaign for me was watching how well Stéphane Dion had learned politics. When I initially supported him, it was because I thought he wasn't much of a politician, and that he was stubborn enough to continue not being much of a politician. Instead, he's learned his new craft well. I just hope it wasn't too well.
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Hey Liberals: way to do something to make me not hate you. Jerks.
Other thoughts:
- Both Dion's supporters and Ignatieff's favoured comparisons between their candidates and Pierre Trudeau. All of them were a stretch, but here's one basis on which Dion is Trudeau-esque: hey marks the first Liberal leader since Pierre Trudeau not to spend basically his entire adult life plotting to become Prime Minister. Stephen Harper, not coincidentally (hopefully) is the first Prime Minister since Trudeau not to spend his entire adult life in pursuit of that goal. (UPDATE: Kim Campbell doesn't count). It's a bad era for professional politicians.
- This also marks the first time since I don't know when (seriously, I'm not aware of the dynamics leading to Wildred Laurier winning the Liberal leadership) that the federal Liberal Party staged an upset. Certainly all of Paul Martin, Jean Chrétien, John Turner, Pierre Trudeau, Lester Pearson, Louis St.-Laurent, and William Lyon MacKenzie King went in as favourites.
- I backed Dion largely because I thought he was most committed to environmental protection. I liked what Ignatieff had to say on the subject as well, but I sensed that Dion, with his fabled intellectual integrity and his obvious emotional attachment to the file, was the one who'd follow through. I'll be watching.
- On October 2, I predicted the first ballot results. Compare my predictions to the actual results:
Prediction
Michael Ignatieff - 30.7%
Bob Rae - 20.4%
Gerard Kennedy - 17.7%
Stéphane Dion - 17.3%
Ken Dryden - 4.8%
Joe Volpe - 4.7%
Scott Brison - 4.0%
Martha Hall Findlay - 1.0%
Actual
29.3% Michael Ignatieff
20.3% Bob Rae
17.8% Stéphane Dion
17.7% Gerard Kennedy
4.9% Ken Dryden
4.0% Scott Brison
3.2% Joe Volpe
2.7% Martha Hall Findlay
You'll note that I predicted four of the results within 0.1%. My most serious errors were in failing to anticipate the massive no-show of Volpe's delegates and the way that undeclared ex-officios migrated to Hall Findlay. I also overestimated Ignatieff by a little, but given that this was a time when Liberal insiders were saying that 35% for him was a slam-dunk, I'm pretty pleased with myself. But then, I'm always pretty pleased with myself.
- The combined intellects of the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition are now as high as they've been since Confederation.
- Going into the last ballot, Ignatieff supporters were trumpeting his comparative electability. Nonsense. Michael Ignatieff could not have won a federal election as a party leader. That's not to say that Dion could - I'm inclined to agree with the pollsters who thought that Rae was the most electable - but it's certainly no strike against him when compared to Iggy.
- The most depressing element of the campaign for me was watching how well Stéphane Dion had learned politics. When I initially supported him, it was because I thought he wasn't much of a politician, and that he was stubborn enough to continue not being much of a politician. Instead, he's learned his new craft well. I just hope it wasn't too well.
